Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Feb. 6, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Cinematography
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: With the shocking snub of Claudio Miranda’s work for “Top Gun: Maverick,” the category is now turned upside down where any of the five films can win. However, by traditional standards, the only film nominated for best picture, and was also cited by the American Society of Cinematographers, is Mandy Walker’s camera work in “Elvis.” After two women finding recognition in history — Rachel Morrison for “Mudbound” (2017) and Ari Wegner for “The Power of the Dog” (2021) — could the first woman win this race?
It’s not so simple especially since cinematography has an interesting correlation with production design and visual effects. Since the best picture expansion in 2009, nine of the 13 winners for cinematography were also nominated for visual effects. In addition, except for “Birdman” (2014), the cinematography winner was also nominated for production design. Netflix’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” is the only movie recognized in all three categories. James Friend’s work on Edward Berger’s war drama could be tough to beat.
You can read the final Variety Awards Circuit column before nominations here. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
|And The Predicted Nominees Are:|
|Rank||Film||Director of Photography||Distributor|
|1||“All Quiet on the Western Front”||James Friend||Netflix|
|A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.|
|2||“Elvis”||Mandy Walker||Warner Bros.|
|The life of American music icon Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.|
|3||“Tár”||Florian Hoffmeister||Focus Features|
|Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.|
|4||“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”||Darius Khondji||Netflix|
|An acclaimed journalist-turned-documentarian goes on an oneiric introspective journey to reconcile with the past, the present and his Mexican identity.|
|5||“Empire of Light”||Roger Deakins||Searchlight Pictures|
|“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.|
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Greig Fraser
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.