oscars-predictions:-best-picture-–-‘everything-everywhere-all-at-once’-tops-nominations,-but-can-it-go-all-the-way?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Jan. 24, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Picture

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Social media and awards pundit circles have been touting Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” as an undisputed front-runner for most of the awards season. With a leading 11 nominations, it’s in an excellent position to win the best picture statuette for distributor A24. The same studio pulled off the memorable “Moonlight” upset over “La La Land” at the 2017 show.

The multiverse flick landed expected noms for acting — Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu — but flexed in the artisan races like costume design, original score and original song. However, holding the title of the “one to beat” can bring the claws out of other studios and strategists who want to come out on top. Notably, in the expanded best picture era (since 2009), the film with the most Oscar nominations has won only four times – “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Birdman” (2014) and “The Shape of Water” (2017). But, before Film Twitter spikes the ball, this race is far from finished, with influential industry groups still to weigh in, such as DGA, BAFTA, PGA and SAG.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankFilmDistributorProducers
1“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2“The Fabelmans”Universal PicturesTony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
3“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight PicturesGraham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
4Top Gun: MaverickParamount PicturesTom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.

5“Tár”Focus FeaturesTodd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
6“Elvis”Warner Bros.Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
The life of American music icon Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.

7“All Quiet on the Western Front”NetflixMalte Grunert
A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
8“Triangle of Sadness”NeonPhilippe Bober, Erik Hemmendorff
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
9“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists ReleasingDede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
10“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century StudiosJames Cameron, Jon Landau
Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the extrasolar moon Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their home.

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2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger (producers)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.